Predictive Analysis of LULC Dynamics for Area Under Submergence and its Environmental Impacts for the Mekedatu Reservoir Project
CHANDAN M C, Pooja K, Pratham Goudageri, Vickey Rajendra Hegade, Prithvi Raj Gowda S
Reservoirs play a crucial role in global water resource management, hydroelectric power generation, and flood control. However, their construction often entails significant ecological and socio-economic impacts, necessitating thorough environmental assessments. The Mekedatu Reservoir Project, situated on the Cauvery River in the Ramanagar district of Karnataka, India, holds paramount significance. Aimed at supplying the Bengaluru Metropolitan Region and its surroundings with drinking water, the project also endeavors to generate 400 MW of renewable energy annually. Despite its benefits, the project comes with ecological costs, as approximately 5252.40 hectares of revenue, forest, and wildlife land will be submerged. This necessitates a detailed evaluation of its potential environmental consequences.
This study identifies a knowledge gap in the existing literature regarding the ecological implications of the Mekedatu Reservoir Project. It seeks to fill this void by forecasting land use and land cover (LULC) changes for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020 using the Random Forest method, and assessing the submergence area for different levels of the proposed reservoir. Catchment delineation is performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Additionally, the Cellular Automaton-Markov Chain technique is employed to predict land use and land cover changes for the year 2030. Integrating these methodologies, the research provides a holistic understanding of the project's environmental footprint.
The land use and land cover analysis revealed significant shifts from 2000 to 2020, with forest cover decreasing from 71.54% to 60.71% and barren land increasing from 19.55% to 29.56%. The projected land use and land cover for 2030 shows further forest reduction to 58.28% and barren land increasing to 31.11%. These changes highlight a trend towards deforestation and land degradation, posing severe ecological threats. The submergence area at the proposed reservoir Full Reservoir Level is estimated to be 5252.4 hectares, distributed as 6.62% water, 19.55% barren land, 71.54% forest area, and 2.29% built-up area for the year 2000. The inundation of these areas will lead to significant biodiversity loss, affecting numerous plant and animal species.
In line with Sustainable Development Goals, which advocates for sustainable water management, this study emphasizes the importance of informed decision-making and sustainable development practices. The findings underscore the need for new ecologically sensitive areas and the establishment of wildlife corridors, conservation zones, and afforestation programs to mitigate the adverse impacts. Continuous environmental monitoring and research are essential to track biodiversity impacts and adjust conservation strategies accordingly.
Policy implications of this study suggest that due process of law, linked with the principle of natural justice, must be adhered to in ensuring environmental balance. Recommendations from the World Commission on Dams (WCD) highlight the need to reduce the negative impacts of dams by increasing the efficiency of existing assets and minimizing ecosystem impacts. Policymakers must understand the long-term ecological consequences of such mega projects and explore alternatives. Sustainable development models must be based on equality and natural justice.
Future research should focus on the socio-economic impacts of the Mekedatu Reservoir Project, particularly the displacement of local communities. This includes conducting detailed socio-economic assessments, inclusive resettlement planning, livelihood restoration programs, and initiatives to preserve cultural heritage. Continuous monitoring and long-term studies are crucial to ensure the well-being of resettled populations and to balance development with environmental and social sustainability.
In summary, this study advances the understanding of environmental impact assessment in reservoir projects, providing valuable insights for stakeholders and policymakers. It highlights the critical need for sustainable development practices that ensure equitable access to water resources while preserving environmental integrity.
Keywords: Environmental Impact Assessment, Reservoir Project, Machine Learning, Random Forest, Markov Chain, Cellular Automaton, Land Use Changes, Submergence Area, Sustainable Development Goals, Water Resource Management.